AGP Executive Report

Dangote Refinery IPO Watch: Aliko Dangote’s refinery has cut secured debt by $570m to $5.67bn and swung to a $1.82bn after-tax profit in H1 2026 as it prepares a potential continent-scale share sale opening Sept 14 (4.1bn shares at ₦525). South Africa Power Affordability: Energy Minister Ramokgopa admitted no targeted study on how tariff hikes hit low-income households, while a revised electricity pricing policy is under review. Malawi Budget Support: AfDB approved $20.5m direct budget support for Malawi to shore up FX and buy fuel and fertiliser ahead of the farming season. Kenya Migration & Xenophobia Risk: African CSOs warned Kenya’s crackdown on foreign informal traders could fuel discrimination and xenophobic tensions across the EAC. Namibia Green Finance Push: Namibia called for innovative green financing to drive industrialisation, jobs and wider electricity access, with a focus on blended and concessional tools. BRICS & Africa Trade: An expert said BRICS can boost Africa’s growth via local-currency trade and infrastructure financing, while another piece flags the need for consensus on entry. NSFAS Funding Alarm: South Africa’s NSFAS shortfall could reach R33bn by 2029 unless the funding model is fundamentally reworked. Kenya Local-Currency Debt Access: JPMorgan is developing a frontier-market local-currency debt index that could include Kenya, aiming to widen foreign investor access to domestic bonds. Fintech Stablecoin Rails: Latitude raised $35m Series A to convert stablecoins into local currencies via regulated on- and off-ramps across emerging markets.

AfDB Energy & Fertiliser Shock Response: The African Development Bank approved a new Global Energy and Fertiliser Crisis Response Framework, backed by an extra $4.1bn AfDB lending plus up to $960m from the African Development Fund, to cushion countries from price and supply shocks. Nigeria Banking Oversight: Nigeria’s central bank elevated terrorism-financing supervision as a priority, tightening risk-based monitoring, sanctions and suspicious transaction reporting across the financial sector. Dangote IPO Meets Global Markets: Nigeria’s SEC approved Dangote Refinery’s N2.15tn IPO (4.1bn shares at N525), as Nigerian equities return to FTSE Russell’s Frontier Market universe—an overlap that could reshape capital flows. South Africa IDs via Banks: Home Affairs expanded Smart ID services to 450+ bank branches ahead of November local elections, urging citizens to apply early. Ghana Education Funding Gap: Eduwatch says Ghana needs an extra GH¢45bn to hit SDG 4, citing shortages in teachers, materials and infrastructure. Cross-border Payments Push: OSL and Waka integrated stablecoin-to-USD conversion and USD payout into settlement rails for Africa–global trade corridors. EU–Morocco Migration Tensions: Ceuta’s mayor urged the EU to rethink cooperation with Morocco after a mass irregular crossing, calling for more EU support and security presence at the border. Liberia NPL Accusations: A Liberian construction firm alleged predatory lending and regulatory inaction by Ecobank Liberia over a loan dating to 2007.

Central Banking Spotlight: Morocco’s Bank Al-Maghrib governor Abdellatif Jouahri makes Global Finance’s top 25 central bank leaders list, graded “A-”, underscoring North Africa’s push for stability. Regional Monetary Moves: ECOWAS orders steps to fast-track the ECO single currency, aiming to keep momentum toward the July 1, 2027 rollout. Housing Finance Reality Check: Ethiopia’s IFC-backed mortgage push tackles maturity, but affordability hinges on interest rates—at 15%+ monthly payments may still price out buyers. Banking & Credit Policy: Nigeria’s Tinubu tells banks to turn recapitalisation into affordable credit for businesses and jobs, not just bigger balance sheets. Macroeconomic Pressure: South Africa’s GDP shrank 0.2% in Q2 after six quarters of growth, with mining, trade and manufacturing weighing on demand and investment. Capital Markets: Standard Bank of South Africa lists R200m senior unsecured notes on the JSE. Development Finance: AfDB launches a $5.1bn response plan for Africa’s energy and fertiliser crisis. Climate Adaptation Deal: IFAD and Equity Group unveil a $200m East Africa climate adaptation mechanism for farmers and rural MSMEs. Fintech Expansion: Revolut gets conditional U.S. OCC approval to set up a national bank, targeting a 2027 launch. Private Credit Growth: Moody’s flags continued expansion of Africa’s private credit market as banks stay constrained on long-term lending.

Dangote IPO Watch: Dangote Petroleum Refinery opens Africa’s biggest retail IPO on Sept 14, offering 4.1bn shares at ₦525 (min 10 shares, ₦5,250 entry) to raise about ₦2.15tn for expansion. Banking & Capital Markets: First Abu Dhabi Bank becomes the first MENA bank to set a UN-backed blue finance target of $27.23bn (AED100bn) for 2026-2035. Credit Risk & Policy: Liberia’s Central Bank convenes a National NPL Resolution Conference (Sept 9-11) with the World Bank to tackle rising non-performing loans. Public Finance: The World Bank says Liberia could unlock fiscal gains of 3.9%-5.3% of GDP by 2030 via revenue, spending and fiscal-risk reforms. Payments & Trade: Tanzania is urged to widen bank participation and harmonise rules to boost uptake of regional payment systems, after declining EAPS activity. Energy & Industry: South Africa’s rand slips ahead of GDP data; Sasol reports stronger earnings but delays dividends as it delevers. Digital & Fintech: Sequrin Technologies launches a healthcare claims-integrity platform aimed at helping investigators spot suspicious patterns. Climate & Risk: NOAA warns Africa to brace for a potentially very strong El Niño with drought, heat, flooding and knock-on effects for food and power.

Dangote IPO Watch: Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals has opened a N2.15trn IPO, pricing shares at N525 with a N5,250 minimum (10 shares) and targeting up to 10 million retail investors across Africa to fund expansion toward 1.4m bpd capacity. Climate Finance Gap: Stakeholders at Rwanda’s Africa Food Systems Forum said climate finance is still out of reach for African farmers because financing models don’t work for both lenders and farmers, despite adoption of solar irrigation and other tech. Health Policy Costs: South Africa’s NHI officials warn mandatory medical scheme membership could cut premiums by up to 30% but may require R20bn–R35bn in state subsidies, pressuring the public fiscus. SME Funding Readiness: Deloitte Ghana urged SMEs to prioritise “bankability” over growth to attract capital, stressing governance, risk management, credible financials and market traction. Cross-Border Payments & Data: Kenya is pushing a safer digital investment environment as it launches a new data centre platform, while regulators and banks continue expanding digital rails and limits for naira cards. Public Finance Scrutiny: Nigeria’s Atiku alleges “reckless borrowing” despite oil revenue windfalls, highlighting rising domestic debt. Investment Freedom Leader: Morocco tops Africa’s Investment Freedom Index, improving to 80/100, signalling stronger investor conditions.

Digital Finance & Payments: Ericsson and FIS are teaming up to pre-integrate wallet-led payments and card-issuing tech with Ericsson’s fintech platform, aiming to cut the build-and-integrate burden for banks and fintechs—an approach that could speed up Africa’s next wave of mobile money services. Energy Cost Shock: South Africa’s Competition Commission says electricity, water and fuel costs are rising faster than inflation, while “rocket and feather” pricing concerns linger—adding pressure ahead of the Reserve Bank’s September meeting. Eskom Tariffs Under Fire: Eskom is seeking an 8.8% average tariff increase from April 2027, with critics warning it’s another above-inflation hit for households. Clean Cooking Finance: Carbon credit financing is emerging as a major bet for scaling clean cookstoves, with Africa securing $900m in new commitments—positioning carbon markets as a household-energy lever. SME Banking: Capitec’s SME push is gaining traction, growing its business client base to about 500,000 and building a R4bn SME lending book. Oil & Capital Markets: Nigeria’s Dangote refinery IPO is moving toward pricing and listing milestones, while CORAN urges Nigeria to secure commercially viable crude supplies for local refiners to avoid continued crude exports and import dependence. Investor Flows: Nigeria’s equities are watching FTSE Russell’s frontier index inclusion list and weights, which could shape foreign portfolio inflows from September 21. Policy & Compliance: Kenya warns foreigners that visa-free access doesn’t equal permission to work or trade, targeting misuse in retail and local commerce.

Banking & Markets: Nigeria’s SEC has approved Dangote Refinery’s IPO, registering 120.13bn shares and paving the way for Africa’s biggest share sale, with the offer potentially raising about ₦2.15tn at ₦525 per share and an order book opening on Sept 14—an investor appetite test for the continent’s most ambitious industrial project. Capital Markets Sentiment: Analysts say the Dangote IPO could reshape NGX trading, potentially adding 30%-40% to market cap and driving a surge in retail and foreign accounts. Development Finance: AfDB chief Sidi Ould Tah is reshaping how the bank raises money and prepares projects, but delivery remains the tougher test against a widening financing gap for transport, energy, education and SDG needs. Trade & Payments: Egypt is seeking expanded AIIB financing for energy, transport and ports, while China-Africa trade continues to deepen RMB use via settlement and clearing upgrades. Policy & Risk: Kingsley Moghalu backs the UN push for more accurate Africa map projections but warns that correcting perceptions won’t deliver prosperity without real economic action. Human Capital & Inclusion: Next2None and NAPTIP signed an MoU for Africa’s first international fashion-for-social-impact campaign, “Threads of Resilience: Fashion for Freedom,” targeting youth empowerment and anti-trafficking outcomes. Sustainability & Waste: Nigeria’s recycling push gathered momentum at the Cycling Lagos webinar, with calls for stronger enforcement, long-term financing and better infrastructure to turn waste into economic value. Tech & Jobs: A new wave of bank automation in Nigeria highlights how routine roles may shrink, shifting demand toward advisory, cybersecurity and data-focused skills.

Sovereign Wealth Push in Kenya: Kenya’s Sovereign Wealth Fund Act (2026) sets a legal framework to invest parts of natural-resource and strategic assets for future generations, aiming to move beyond “taxes and borrowing” toward national wealth-building. PPP and Infrastructure Finance in Nigeria: ICRC says Nigeria’s infrastructure gap needs about $100bn a year and is pushing faster, threshold-based PPP approvals to boost investor confidence and delivery. Kenya Investment Climate Test: Kenya’s order to shut Tata Chemicals Magadi raises fears of a “pack and go” approach that could spook foreign investors unless disputes are handled transparently. South Africa Power and Water Risks: Eskom’s recovery is real, but government moves on transmission ownership could undermine momentum; meanwhile boards are urged to treat water stewardship as a core business risk. Capital Markets and Banking Moves: NGX begins climate baseline assessments under its N-Zero push; ZB Bank appoints a new CEO from Oct 1; Angola’s Standard Bank share sale targets up to about $261m. Energy Grid Demand: Experts warn Africa must digitalise and expand electricity grids as demand surges and losses stay high. Social Policy and Grants: South Africa’s EFF leader Julius Malema promises to lift SASSA old-age grants to R4,500 if elected. Corruption Case Politics: Nigeria’s EFCC Atiku case may not be reopened soon, with sources pointing to election timing. Trade and Payments: TAP’s bid process affects 14 African destinations; Nigeria’s syndicated loans jump 21-fold to $2.86bn.

Debt & Reparations Push: Kwesi Pratt Jnr and the Pan-African Progressive Front urged African youth in Accra to demand debt cancellation and reparations that deliver equal rights, resource control and self-reliance, warning against deeper foreign security ties that could deepen neocolonial dependence. Intra-Africa Trade Momentum: Algeria’s 4th Intra-African Trade Fair boosted deal signings to nearly $50bn, while Nigeria rolled out ECOWAS Trade Liberalisation Scheme (ETLS) sensitisation for businesses to expand exports under AfCFTA. Banking & Capital Markets: Nigeria’s SEC approved Dangote Refinery’s IPO, kicking off Africa’s biggest share sale with a potential ~$1.63bn raise; meanwhile, NGX equities rose with investors gaining N3.733tn on the week. Climate Finance for Farmers: IFAD and Equity Group launched a $200m East Africa climate adaptation mechanism (ARCAFIM) to scale lending and technical support for smallholders and rural SMEs. Anti-Money Laundering: Tanzania said it is closing AML/CTF gaps after ESAAMLG mutual evaluation, with law amendments underway. Digital Infrastructure Backlash: South African civil rights groups urged a pause on new data centers over water, land and power concerns. Uber Retreat: Uber exited Nigeria and Uganda, citing a narrower operational focus despite continued activity in other African markets.

Health Financing: Uganda is finalising a 10-year health financing strategy (2026–2036) to boost domestic funding, tighten accountability and protect households from catastrophic healthcare costs. Climate & Agriculture Finance: IFAD and Equity Group launched a $200m (about Shs755bn) climate adaptation mechanism for smallholders across Uganda, Kenya, Tanzania and Rwanda, targeting 260,000 producers and 500 rural MSMEs. Fintech & Agritech: Ugandan startup SANDI AI won the 2026 GoGettaz Agripreneur Prize (about Shs190m) to expand AI-driven agricultural finance for smallholders. Capital Markets: Nigeria’s SEC approved Dangote Refinery’s IPO, clearing the way for a potential N2.15trn share sale—Africa’s biggest—starting mid-September. Anti-Money Laundering: Zambia upgraded key FATF-related areas, moving closer to full compliance as it strengthens oversight of financial institutions and beneficial ownership rules. Energy Transition: A new report spotlights Morocco’s NOOR complex as a standout renewable energy success, citing private investment and large-scale power delivery. Payments & Remittances: WapiPay entered Jamaica’s remittance market via JN Money, aiming to expand cross-border transfers and trade-linked payments. Sovereign Finance: The World Bank warned Zimbabwe against rushing to make ZiG the sole currency, warning of capital flight risks. Markets: Ghana’s stock exchange (GSE) topped Sub-Saharan Africa’s equity performance in 1H 2026, with the GSE Composite Index up 67.89% year-to-date.

Capital Markets: Nigeria’s Dangote Petroleum Refinery is set to open its IPO order book on 14 September, with plans to sell 4.1 billion shares at about ₦525 each, targeting roughly $1.5–$1.6bn to help double capacity to 1.4m bpd and push further into East Africa. Energy Regulation: South Africa’s power regulator Nersa has opened public comment on Eskom’s 8.83% tariff structure for 2027/28, focusing on how revenue is split between fixed and variable charges, with submissions due 2 October. Development Finance: IFAD and Bank of Kigali signed a $12m financing deal to expand access to agricultural finance for Rwanda’s farmers’ organizations and smallholders. Clean Energy Access: Uganda’s dfcu Bank and Sawa Energy launched a pay-for-consumption/lease model to fund on-site solar and storage for SMEs and corporates. Climate & Food Systems: At the Africa Food Systems Forum in Kigali, private-sector players urged better soil health and faster, more reliable fertiliser subsidy payments to protect yields. Retirement Markets: South Africa’s living annuity assets jumped R911bn as retirees stay cautious, with average drawdowns holding around 6.6%.

African Credit Rating Agency: Nigeria’s President Tinubu backed the AU’s AfCRA launch on Oct 7, saying it must win global investor trust through independence and rigorous, fair risk assessments. Regional Integration Shock: Nigeria’s Presidency said Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger’s ECOWAS exit weakened key integration mechanisms, with border management now central to trade and security. Banking Profitability: South Africa’s Discovery Bank posted its first full-year profit (R370m) and outlined a “superbank” strategy to scale earnings; Eskom also reported a R30.35bn profit, but critics warned the model still leans on pricing and municipal non-payment. Development Finance: Ghana’s DBG said it has disbursed over GH¢2.5bn, reaching nearly 1,000 businesses nationwide, with heavy focus on women-led firms and agribusiness. Digital Finance & Payments: Paycode appointed Colin Digby as Chief Revenue Officer to scale payments and digital identity in hard-to-reach markets; Nigeria was urged to lead Africa in digital finance and tokenised cross-border settlement. Food Systems Investment: At the Africa Food Systems Forum in Kigali, leaders called for decisive investment and stronger coordination to make Africa’s food systems more sustainable and self-reliant. Markets & FX: The Nigerian stock market rebounded, gaining N239bn, while South Africa’s rand strengthened past R16 as Fed rate-hike expectations cooled.

Credit & Sovereignty: Nigeria’s Tinubu backed the AU’s plan to launch the African Credit Rating Agency on October 7, arguing Africa needs fair, locally grounded risk assessments that win global investor trust through independence and transparency. Insurance & Capital Markets: African Alliance Insurance set Sept 23 for an EGM to seek approval to raise up to N12bn to meet recapitalisation rules, including options like rights issues, convertible debt and asset sales. Banking Infrastructure: India’s GIFT-IFSC IBUs sanctioned $54.02bn under the RBI FCNR(B) swap facility (about $52.82bn already disbursed), underscoring growing cross-border financing activity. Energy Transition (Skills & Ownership): A policy discussion in Accra stressed that Africa’s energy transition will succeed only if countries build local capability—who installs, operates, maintains and owns the know-how. Climate Finance & Governance: A climate advocate urged stronger environmental enforcement and implementation, not just commitments, calling for investment in green skills and innovation. Public Finance Leadership: ACBF warned that public sector reforms across Africa stall when leadership and change management lag behind technical plans. Health: Nigeria hosted the Dementia Africa Conference 2026, launching a 10-year push to make dementia a continental public health priority. Women’s Finance: AfDB and AXIAN launched a digital finance programme for women-led SMEs across Madagascar, Tanzania, Senegal, Togo and the Comoros, combining lending, literacy and skills support. Macroeconomics: Zimbabwe reported inflation falling to 2.9% in August 2026, down from 736% in 2024, citing tighter monetary policy and exchange-rate stability. Consumer Finance: South Africa’s Money Smart Week urged households to review spending, manage debt, build savings and stay alert to fraud.

Infrastructure & Mining: A Cape Town panel at SIDSSA stressed that mining-linked municipal infrastructure must outlive mine lifecycles, with long-term borrowing and planning to build for future local economies. Food Systems & Investment: At the Africa Food Systems Forum, CGIAR showcased scalable, investment-ready agrifood innovations, including digital fertilizer advice, climate-smart bundles for women farmers, and a financing model targeting $1.5bn for agriculture innovation. Energy & Renewables Finance: In DRC, CrossBoundary’s 233MW solar-plus-storage plant for Kamoa Copper reached commercial operation in 16 months, positioning firm renewables as a bankable alternative to diesel. Public Safety: A South Africa crime expert warned that a low police detection rate (~12.5%) undermines real consequences and public confidence. Digital Payments & Regulation: XTransfer secured in-principle approval for a UAE retail payment licence, aiming to expand regulated cross-border trade payments. Climate-Resilient Infrastructure: AFC’s FIPRE framework is being used to back Nigeria’s Infrastructure Climate-Resilient Fund, with a structured approach for investor confidence. Vehicle Market: South Africa’s August new-vehicle sales rose 11.4% year-on-year, led by passenger cars and supported by rentals. AI in Retail Ops: Pilot launched Navigator, an AI layer for restaurant POS data to surface pricing anomalies and profitability insights fast. Critical Minerals Push: Uganda is courting investors at Africa Down Under to unlock its $4tn–$12tn mineral potential, including rare earths.

Debt Restructuring: Senegal signals it will restructure debt in exchange for an IMF $2.2bn credit facility, after a 2024 hidden-debt shock that pushed debt-to-GDP to about 130% and triggered bond selloffs. Oil & Gas Milestone: Uganda names its crude blend “Pearl Sweet” ahead of commercial production, with TotalEnergies and CNOOC as key investors and the Uganda National Oil Company holding 15%. Payments & Fintech: Canva launches cardless recurring subscriptions in South Africa via Capitec Pay (with EBANX), aiming to reach millions without credit cards; Paymentology powers Maxim’s UK credit card programme for Africans “credit invisible” in new markets. Mobility Shake-up: Uber exits Nigeria and Uganda, intensifying competition as drivers and riders scramble for alternatives. Banking & Capital Markets: Standard Bank eyes bigger East Africa business growth organically; NGX slips slightly as heavyweight sell-offs drag sentiment. Climate Risk: UNICEF warns 162m children across eastern and southern Africa face heightened El Niño impacts on food, health, education and safety. Energy & Infrastructure Finance: Germany and France commit €300m concessional loans to South Africa’s Metro Trading Services Reform programme to improve municipal electricity, water and waste performance. AI Startup Funding: Askya offers African AI startups up to $200,000 in a zero-equity accelerator.

Digital Lending Push (Nigeria): FirstBank says it is disbursing over N1bn in digital loans daily, citing faster approvals and reduced collateral barriers as it deepens financial inclusion and job creation. Power Sector Accountability (Nigeria): Nigeria’s planned sanctions on power generating companies for Free Governor Mode compliance is drawing criticism for exposing deeper grid and privatisation gaps, with experts calling for grid modernisation and automation. Investor Returns (Nigeria): Seplat targets $1bn in shareholder dividends over the next four to five years while aiming to lift production to 500,000 bpd, positioning the company for stronger capital-market appeal. Household Crime Snapshot (South Africa): Stats SA reports rising household experiences of murder and housebreaking, alongside low reporting to police—highlighting ongoing public safety and trust challenges. Reinsurance IPO (Botswana): Continental Re will launch Botswana’s first IPO in nearly a decade to raise capital for underwriting capacity and growth across an under-insured continent. SME Sustainability (Africa): B Lab Africa opens applications for its seventh Resilient Sustainable Business programme to help SMEs embed sustainability and prepare for investment. Fintech Regulation & Scale (Africa): MTN Group Fintech convenes industry leaders on accelerating digital financial inclusion, with a focus on trusted infrastructure and responsible innovation. Stablecoin Momentum (Global, Africa-linked): A group of 21 banks backs a new USD stablecoin venture, including Standard Bank in Africa, aiming for a 2027 launch for cross-border payments and settlement. Public Finance Reform (Kenya): Kenya’s eTIMS integration with IFMIS is set to tighten tax compliance and create a cleaner payment trail for government suppliers.