AGP Executive Report

Energy & Industry: Tanzania’s Julius Nyerere Hydropower Project adds major generation capacity, but the real test is turning cheaper, reliable power into industrial scale for minerals and refining. Peace & Elections: South Africa’s Ramaphosa urges South Sudan to stick to the 2018 peace deal ahead of December elections, as the AU flags remaining political and security gaps. Capital Markets: Nigeria’s NGX slips as banking and insurance stocks drag sentiment; equities turnover stays high despite the dip. Banking & Inclusion: Capitec reports 26.6m active clients and signals a shift from mass banking into broader business relationships. Fintech Recognition: Flutterwave CEO Olugbenga Agboola makes the world’s Top 100 fintech leaders list, boosting Nigeria’s digital finance profile. Infrastructure Finance: Afreximbank backs Prometal with a €40m revolving facility to secure steel raw materials. Digital Payments: Verve and Wema Bank launch tokenisation for mobile payments, pushing safer digital transactions. Commodities Finance: Asante Gold gets lender waivers and deadline extensions tied to new funding plans. Climate Resilience: World Bank study warns Comoros must invest in fisheries as climate impacts intensify.

Digital Assets & Banking: Absa became the first African bank to get regulatory approval for institutional digital asset custody for South African clients, offering safekeeping and transfer services inside a regulated banking framework. Stablecoin Payments: Kora launched One Rail, letting African merchants collect, hold, convert and settle USDT/USDC alongside fiat via the same APIs and dashboards. Capital Markets: Airtel Money’s IPO on the London Stock Exchange gained IFC as an anchor investor, with the deal framed as a boost for Africa’s equity exit pathways. Energy & Industry: Aliko Dangote and Kenya’s Ruto will break ground on a $16bn East Africa refinery in Lamu, aiming to cut fuel costs and reduce hard-currency imports; Dangote also reiterated plans to democratise Dangote Group ownership via public listings. Public Finance: Zambia plans K212.2bn debt servicing over 2027–2029, outpacing key social and development transfers. Social Protection: South Africa’s SASSA is reviewing November grant payment dates due to local elections on Nov 4. Policy & Governance: Nigeria’s Army and ICPC move to block terrorism-linked financial networks, while Liberia and MCC advanced talks on a Second Compact into a joint design phase.

Dangote Refinery & Capital Markets: Aliko Dangote says the Lamu court order won’t stop construction, while Kenya’s finance chief says the country could raise its refinery stake beyond 10% if neighbours opt out; meanwhile, Kenyan investors are set to access the IPO via GDRs on the NSE, with shares priced as low as Sh49 (regulatory approval pending). Equities & Banking Sentiment: Nigeria’s NGX shed about N469bn in market value as banking stocks dragged the All-Share Index down 0.29%. Credit Ratings Push: Africa’s own credit rating agency (AfCRA) is nearing launch in Mauritius on 7 October, aiming to cut the “risk premium” from external ratings. Cross-Border Payments: A new focus on faster rails and local-currency settlement highlights how Africa’s payment infrastructure is reshaping remittances and trade flows. Financial Inclusion: Advans Ghana says its client base has doubled to 160,000, with women-led businesses at the core, as it prepares to launch a new product. Governance & Risk: Absa convened banks, regulators and fintechs to strengthen data privacy and responsible AI use across digital banking. Health Investment: Zambia signed a $2bn deal to build a Medical City in Lusaka to position the country as a southern Africa health-tourism hub.

Red Sea Disruption: A US Africa Command warning says growing Houthi ties with Somalia’s Al-Shabaab could escalate and threaten Red Sea shipping, with reports of weapons sales and training that may expand Al-Shabaab’s maritime reach. Dangote Refinery Momentum: Investor confidence is rising as Dangote Petroleum Refinery’s IPO sentiment strengthens on projections of about $36bn revenue in 2026, after $17bn in H1. South Africa Financial Pressure: The rand slips on oil-price worries ahead of key local data, while separate research shows South Africa among the most financially stressed, with debt-review applicants often spending over half their take-home pay on repayments. Zimbabwe Rates Cut: Zimbabwe’s central bank cuts its benchmark rate to 27.5% as inflation stays benign, supporting growth under its IMF-backed programme. Ebola Surge in DRC: Confirmed Ebola cases in DR Congo pass 8,000, with Africa CDC saying nearly $2.9bn has been mobilised for the response. Water Infrastructure Deal: Cape Town begins a PPP tender for the Faure New Water Scheme, targeting up to 100m litres/day. Forest Finance Gap: Africa pushes new forest funding models, but a $66.8bn annual gap remains a major blocker to stopping deforestation by 2030. SME Compliance Risk (POPIA): South Africa’s POPIA enforcement is tightening, with RubiBlue warning compliance gaps are becoming a direct business risk for SMEs. ECOWAS Startup Awards: Winners of the second ECOWAS Startup Awards will share $65,000, alongside acceleration and investor access.

Red Sea Trade Risk: A new assessment warns Bab el-Mandeb risk is rising for Africa as Houthi control on Yemen’s Red Sea coast could trigger selective or lasting pressure on shipping, with Ethiopia’s Djibouti corridor especially exposed. Pensions Under Pressure: South Africa’s financial regulator says more than half a million workers may have unpaid retirement contributions, with R8.3bn owed and 16,000+ employers flagged. Nigeria Rates & Growth: Nigeria cut its benchmark rate from 26.5% to 23%, signaling monetary easing as inflation moderates and FX conditions improve, though analysts want more credit support for small businesses. Aviation Momentum: Nigeria’s passenger numbers and seat capacity are climbing fast, driven by currency reforms and aircraft leasing, but structural challenges remain. Debt vs New Borrowing: Nigeria’s opposition Atiku demands the government account for existing N166.79tn debt before taking a fresh $1.5bn World Bank loan. Fintech & Digital Assets: ABSA is set as a first pilot client for ProText Mobility’s digital-asset custody onboarding, while HashKey MENA, Aptos and Daya trial a regulated stablecoin payments corridor between the Middle East and Africa. Infrastructure & Corridors: Morocco and Mauritania sign a framework to rehabilitate and expand the El Guerguerat–Nouakchott road, strengthening a North Africa–West Africa land corridor. Climate Finance Strain: New analysis says climate aid is often delivered as loans that add to public debt, leaving the poorest countries struggling to access grants.

Industrial Policy & Jobs: South Africa’s dtic says its stainless steel push must tackle the whole value chain—using chrome reserves, ferrochrome capacity and the Steel Roadmap—to cut import pressure and raise beneficiation, exports and employment. Security & Illicit Mining: A South African bar attack has killed 18, with police linking the violence to gang rivalry tied to illegal gold mining. Energy & Investment: Kenya is set to break ground on Dangote’s $16bn East African Oil Refinery in Lamu, aiming to reduce fuel imports and turn the country into a regional processing hub. Sovereign Credit Watch: Moody’s cut Botswana’s ratings again to Baa2, warning diamond slump and weaker fiscal buffers could worsen finances. Banking & Identity Friction: South Africa’s Home Affairs is struggling to verify elderly residents’ fingerprints, leaving housebound people stuck ahead of the green ID booklet phase-out. Clean Air Deadline: Research warns South Africa’s outdated vehicle emission rules mean one premature death every 13 minutes; CF2 clean-fuels reforms in 2027 need matching vehicle standards. Maternal Health Funding: Namibia’s Nandi-Ndaitwah urged higher domestic investment in maternal care across rural Africa at UNGA. Cross-border Water: South Africa and Zimbabwe are discussing a $500m dam plan to supply water to the Musina-Makhado industrial zone. Pension Returns: Uganda’s NSSF posted a record 22.53% interest rate for 2025/26, strengthening the case for domestic savings to fund growth. FDI Signals: Botswana withdrew from the 2028 AFCON bid citing financial constraints, while South Africa’s FDI mix continues to lean on tourism and energy.

M&A Watch: South Africa’s Gold Fields has approached Australia’s Northern Star Resources for a takeover, but Northern Star rebuffed the overtures, setting up a high-stakes next move as gold prices spur dealmaking. Corporate Pay & Performance: South African tycoon Marcel Golding’s pay jumped fivefold even as AOE profit fell 72%, highlighting pressure on governance as investors watch earnings quality. Banking & Credit: Ecobank plans a $2.6bn loan portfolio by 2030 for women-led businesses and agribusiness SMEs, pairing lending with training and digital tools. Policy & Markets: Kenya’s CBK reports foreign bank representative offices saw a 15.8% drop in 2025 transaction values to Sh210.9bn, citing weaker cross-border payments and project finance. Energy & Industry: Kenya’s Ruto toured Dangote’s 700,000 bpd refinery, calling it a “masterpiece,” and reiterated plans for a $17bn East African refinery in Lamu. Trade & Integration: AfCFTA’s Wamkele Mene says removing barriers to cross-border payments, customs and infrastructure could cut Africa’s currency-conversion costs by about Sh647.3bn a year. Public Finance: Senegal’s 2026 budget revision slashes growth to 2.7% and cuts investment spending by 555bn FCFA after a 451.4bn FCFA revenue shortfall. Development Finance: AfDB and partners launched free AI training for African public servants, aiming to improve AI use in government procurement and service delivery. Food Security: UN/FAO warns El Niño response plans face major funding gaps in the Horn of Africa.

Sovereign Debt Watch: S&P says Senegal’s foreign-currency debt rework is unlikely to hit most sub-Saharan banks much, but warns domestic debt could still trigger broader treatment and raise credit costs. Digital Skills & Inclusion: Absa Bank Ghana backs the 2026 GirlCode Hackathon to expand young women’s practical AI and digital-economy skills. Energy Transition Priority: AfDB urges clean cooking to be treated as a core development priority, citing nearly 1bn people still without access and the health and economic costs of dirty fuels. Infrastructure Delivery Risk: In Cameroon, Chinese firms hold about 66% of major road contract value in the north, but progress is slow on several projects—raising execution and oversight concerns. Regional Inflation: EAC headline inflation drops sharply in June, but core and food inflation rise, keeping underlying price pressure alive. Malaria Funding Gap: ALMA warns a 30% malaria financing cut could add 146m cases and nearly 400,000 deaths by 2030. Banking Cost Pressure: Eswatini’s central bank lifts its discount rate to 7.00%, likely pushing up borrowing costs for households and businesses. Housing Finance Spotlight: Republic Bank-JoyNews Habitat Fair clinic enters final day in Ghana, featuring mortgage and home-improvement financing options. Illicit Finance Alarm: A South Africa report claims foreign-owned spaza shops moved about R6.3bn out of the country via unregistered SIMs and informal cash networks, linked to grey-listing concerns.

Housing & Infrastructure Finance: Uganda is pushing for innovative, long-term financing to ease its housing and construction bottlenecks, spotlighting tools like PPPs, green bonds and municipal finance. Industrial Investment: Uganda’s Fine Spinners is adding US$5m (Sh19.7bn) to expand textile machinery and boost exports across Africa. Court & Property Risk: Uganda’s Bitature faces a near-Sh1bn court bill after a Shs954m judgment tied to 2012 hotel and residence designs by Finicon Group. Ghana Energy for Industry: IFC and LMI Holdings expand Solar for Industries in Ghana’s Tema and Dawa zones with a US$39.5m package for a 200MW solar buildout, aiming at more reliable power and jobs. Kenya Energy Build-Out: Lamu receives first heavy machinery for Dangote’s US$17bn East Africa refinery, with preparations for a September 30 groundbreaking. Food Security & Public Finance: Ghana orders NAFCO to release 50,000 grain bags to settle a 2018 ECOWAS school-feeding obligation, citing improved production and NAFCO profitability. Digital Finance & Consumer Pressure: South Africans are cutting household spend as living costs bite, with reports pointing to reduced food deliveries, subscriptions and other essentials. UN & Global Finance Politics: Nigeria calls for fairer pandemic financing and stronger vaccine access at UN talks, while broader debates on debt and global financial reform keep resurfacing.

Power Reform in South Africa: Eskom’s “Eskom 2.0” gets a hard reset: no more government bailouts and no sustained double-digit tariff hikes, as the board is pushed to cut losses, tighten procurement and publish 3-, 5- and 10-year plans. Banking & Compliance: Analysts warn Nigerian banks expanding across Africa to deepen host-country compliance as regulators tighten rules, highlighted by The Gambia’s push to replace non-Gambian staff and Kenya’s Access Bank Kenya transfer to NBK. Rates Watch: Nigeria slips to 3rd among Africa’s highest policy-rate countries after the CBN cuts the MPR from 26.5% to 23.0%, reshuffling the September ranking. UNGA Finance & Sovereignty: UN General Assembly speeches keep returning to Africa’s demand for a stronger global voice—especially Security Council reform and fairer climate and development financing. Energy & Trade Finance: Ethiopia’s BRICS membership is framed as a new route to development finance and investment, including potential access to the BRICS New Development Bank. Agriculture Funding: Ten African countries pledge nearly $9m to IFAD for 2028-2030, betting on rural agrifood investment to tackle hunger and climate stress. Digital Assets in Ghana: DASA 2026 in Accra invites Francophone West Africa into digital-asset policy talks, aiming to bridge regional trade finance gaps.

Food Security: IGAD warns 40.3m people across Djibouti, Kenya, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan and Uganda face acute hunger in 2026, with conflict, drought and funding cuts driving the crisis. Digital Identity: Seamfix marks National ID Day 2026, urging trusted identity systems so hundreds of millions can access banking, healthcare and SIM registration. Digital Inclusion: GSMA and PDAA flag a mobile internet participation gap: 906m Africans live in coverage areas but still don’t use mobile internet, blocking access to online services. UNGA & Governance: Nigeria’s VP Kashim Shettima pushes for Africa’s permanent UN Security Council seats with veto power, alongside climate finance and tech transfer demands. Payments & Fintech: Interswitch calls for adaptive financial infrastructure in Nigeria to support resilient, interoperable digital payments. Banking & SME Finance: FCMB rolls out a special invoice financing scheme for pharmaceutical marketers in Nigeria. Central Banking & Trade: Ghana’s Bank of Ghana backs a pilot to cut third-party currency settlements with China via cedi-RMB cross-currency settlement. Energy & Industry: Kenya’s East Africa refinery in Lamu is set for a September 30 ground-breaking, with financing discussions tied to Dangote’s mega project visit. Critical Minerals: KoBold says Western miners can match China’s speed in Africa if approvals are streamlined and regulators coordinate. Infrastructure Integrity: AfDB bars Cameroon’s CR20 for 13 months over “fraudulent practice” in a transport corridor program. Agriculture Investment: Agriculture Summit Africa targets a $300m pipeline to unlock investable food-system projects.

UN Security Council Reform: Portuguese PM Luis Montenegro urged permanent UN Security Council seats for Africa, Brazil and India, arguing the body must better reflect today’s world. Digital State at UNGA: African leaders pushed digital transformation and AI governance at UNGA, framing it as sovereignty and public-service delivery, not just tech. Ebola Funding: Africa CDC said $2.9bn has been mobilized for Ebola response across Africa, with US and EU among major contributors as cases rise in the DRC. Nigeria Investor Push: President Tinubu promised regulatory clarity and policy stability as Ogun and DP World signed a $7bn-plus deep seaport and special economic zone deal. Ethiopia-Djibouti Energy Link: Dangote-backed $660m Damarjog–Dewele pipeline terminal project was hailed as a game-changer for regional trade and energy security. Markets & Rates: Nigeria’s NGX surged, adding N622bn market cap in one session, while South Africa’s repo rate hike to 7.25% raises pressure on consumers via higher borrowing costs and fuel-linked inflation. Retail Investing Boost (Nigeria): Dangote Petroleum Refinery expanded IPO access via Moniepoint POS agents, with minimum entry of N5,250. AfDB & GCERF Partnership: AfDB and GCERF signed a cooperation framework to scale community-led prevention and development finance in fragile settings.

South Africa Macro & Rates: The SARB raised rates to 7.25% as inflation risks climbed (fuel and transport pressures), while growth remains fragile after a 0.2% Q2 slowdown. Zimbabwe AfCFTA Push: Acting President Mohadi urged Zimbabwe to turn regional value chains into industrial output, jobs and livelihoods under AfCFTA. Nigeria Power Debt Relief: Africa Finance Corporation co-advised a $550m Series 2 bond to clear Nigeria’s power sector arrears and restore liquidity across the value chain. Airtel Money London IPO: Airtel Africa says its mobile money arm plans a secondary IPO listing on the London Stock Exchange, keeping Airtel Africa as a long-term strategic shareholder. Zambia Copper Waste Recovery: Konkola Copper Mines awarded a contract for a tailings-leach plant to recover ~70,000 tonnes of copper annually, positioning it as Africa’s largest of its kind. Remittances & Institutions: Research highlights that remittances only boost domestic revenue when institutions and financial systems are strong. Liberia Power Access: Liberia set a target to reach 75% electricity access by 2029–30, while warning system losses must be cut for sustainability. Climate & Displacement: ECOWAS warned climate change and insecurity are driving mass displacement and destabilising the region. AfCFTA Fault Line: A Nigeria–South Africa dispute is raising concerns that political tensions can spill into trade and investment, threatening integration momentum.

Monetary Policy Shock (South Africa): The South African Reserve Bank lifted the repo rate by 25 bps to 7.25%, pushing the prime lending rate to 10.75% as fuel-linked inflation risks rise; households and borrowers are set to feel higher repayments. Digital Finance & Payments: Equity Mobile App added biometric payment authorisation via face ID or fingerprint, while Airtel Money confirmed plans to float on the London Stock Exchange (expected valuation around $9bn, raising about £600m). SME Finance Expansion (Cameroon): Access Bank and the International Trade Centre included Cameroon in a 14-country programme to expand SME finance, market access and skills—starting with a Ghana pilot. Energy & Clean Cooking Investment: Kenya will host the Africa Clean Cooking Summit in January 2027, with a stated $600m institutional clean cooking investment opportunity. Infrastructure Delivery Bottleneck (South Africa): Infrastructure South Africa says only ~16% of public infrastructure tenders were concluded in the past year, blaming weak procurement conversion and internal departmental issues. UN & AU Cooperation: The AU and UN renewed agreements to strengthen operational support and knowledge exchange. Tech for Investors: ArcPoint expanded its institutional intelligence platform for modern investors across London, Ottawa, Zürich and Cape Town.

Energy Finance: South Africa says reviving mothballed state refineries will cost about $8bn, with talks on potential funding from Afreximbank among others, as the Central Energy Fund weighs upgrades and restart plans. FX & Rates: The rand is subdued ahead of inflation data and a likely 25bp SARB rate hike, keeping investors focused on the inflation path. Fintech Capital Markets: Airtel Money confirms plans for a London IPO, aiming to list separately on the LSE and potentially raise up to $800m, valuing the payments unit around $8–9bn. Mining & Livelihoods: Ghana’s gold economy spotlight turns to artisanal and small-scale mining, arguing that trust-based formalisation and better governance are key to reducing conflict and improving outcomes. Sovereign & Development Finance: Nigeria’s $300m DRE Fund enters commercial operation to scale off-grid and mini-grid power under Mission 300. Corruption & Assets: A Nigeria-focused investigation links 61 officials to 284 US properties worth about $271m, reigniting pressure on anti-graft enforcement. Kenya Banking Data: Kenya’s high-value bank accounts rose to 781,977 (KSh 500k+), highlighting wealth concentration even as overall momentum softens.

Monetary Policy Shock: Nigeria’s central bank cut its key interest rate to 23% from 26.5%, the biggest reduction in two decades, as inflation cools and FX reserves strengthen. Open Finance Push: Kenya’s Treasury and central bank drafted a National Payment System Bill to force banks and mobile money platforms (including M-Pesa) to share customer data with consent, enabling open finance. Capital for SMEs: EFG Holding secured a $40m four-year EBRD loan to expand MSME lending in Egypt, aiming to support jobs and inclusive growth. Power Sector Investment: Nigeria’s power minister outlined a new phase focused on grid stabilisation and a transmission super grid, with China-linked commitments for key projects. Dangote’s IPO Momentum: Aliko Dangote set 2028 for a planned IPO of his fertilizer business, while the refinery listing continues to draw cross-border interest. Trade & Growth: Afreximbank and ATDC signed a $500m facility to boost intra-African trade and distribution. Climate & Resilience: ECOWAS warned climate change and insecurity could drive displacement to nearly 32m by 2050. Banking Leadership: Coface South Africa appointed Paulo Solipa as COO to accelerate digital transformation and customer service.