AGP Executive Report

Banking M&A: Emirates NBD says it is in talks to acquire HSBC’s Turkish unit, building on its 2019 Denizbank purchase and signaling continued Middle East and Africa expansion. SME Finance: Bank of Africa Kenya and Ganatra/JCB have launched 90% asset financing for contractors with a 10% deposit, aiming to unlock machinery access for smaller firms. Monetary Policy Watch: South Africa’s SARB has room to move gradually on rates, with two-year inflation expectations closer to target than headline figures. Markets & Investing: South Africa’s JSE has had a weak first half of 2026, with broad losses and only a few big winners as investors reassess risk. Energy & Infrastructure: The World Bank approved $265m for Morocco’s Ifahsa pumped hydropower storage project to boost grid reliability and renewable integration. Municipal Revenue: South Africa’s local government finances are under strain, with audit findings pointing to widespread billing and collection failures. Digital Payments & Inclusion: Zimbabwe’s RBZ urged SMEs to use digital payments to cut costs and expand access. Security & Trade: Sahel and maritime insecurity are raising costs and disrupting trade across West Africa, with piracy alone estimated to cost over $500m annually. Nigeria Development Finance: The World Bank approved a $1.25bn Nigeria loan focused on jobs and private-sector-led growth, despite public backlash over debt. AfCFTA Digital Trade: Nigeria and AfCFTA officials push to scale digitally delivered services, noting only 5% are traded within Africa. Payments Tech: Interswitch and Temenos signed a partnership to upgrade digital banking capabilities across Africa. AI & Consumer Payments: Visa says Nigeria’s AI-driven shopping is surging, while trust in digital payments remains high even as fraud exposure rises.

Rand steadies as US-Iran talks cloud risk appetite: Reuters reports the South African rand held steady on July 1 while investors weighed a softer June factory activity survey. Job losses deepen in South Africa: Stats SA data shows employment fell by 121,000 over 12 months, with community services and trade hit hardest. Côte d’Ivoire emerges as West Africa’s new banking battleground: Big lenders are doubling down on Abidjan, with Zenith’s Francophone push and MCB planning to enter, betting on industrial growth and intra-African trade. Fintech momentum in Ghana: UBA Ghana projects Africa’s fintech market could top $65bn by 2030, driven by youth and digital adoption. Nigeria gets €500m-plus EU backing: European Development Banks pledged over €500m to Nigeria in the past year, targeting infrastructure, healthcare manufacturing, renewables, digital and SME finance. Kenya pushes for policy certainty: Deputy President Kindiki urged stable rules to unlock long-term investment. ATIDI strengthens Africa risk insurance: The multilateral insurer posted a 20% profit rise in 2025 to $71.4m and assets above $1bn. South Africa taps sukuk again: Treasury says it plans to issue Islamic bonds later in 2026 using existing rand-denominated instruments. Ethiopia spotlight for investors: A feature argues Ethiopia’s scale and development plans make it a key bellwether for the next wave of African investment.

South Africa Forex-Rigging Case: South Africa’s Constitutional Court ruled that competition authorities can pursue rand-manipulation claims against six banks, keeping one of the biggest market cases alive and setting up a full hearing. Banking Leadership & Performance: Absa announced senior executive exits under Kenny Fihla’s push to rebuild performance and strengthen corporate and investment banking. Rand & Trade Pressure: The SARB said Middle East war shocks rattled markets but didn’t derail real growth in Q1, while SA’s trade balance slipped into a May deficit as the oil import bill rose. Business Rescue Wind-Down: Group Five exited a six-year business rescue with full creditor recovery, a rare clean landing after years of restructuring. Policy Gap on Crypto: Regulators’ stance on crypto and stablecoins in payments drew criticism as South Africa still lacks a clear, innovation-friendly framework. Kenya Family Business Risk: A study warns divorce and weak succession planning are the biggest threats to Kenya’s family-owned firms during the intergenerational wealth transition. Nigeria Digital & Data Security: PalmPay rolled out stronger internal data protection training and governance as breaches rise across Nigeria’s fintech space. Nigeria Investment Push: The EU launched a €20m Nigeria country window to back infrastructure, agriculture, healthcare, renewables and SMEs. Ebola Funding Alert: Africa CDC warned Bundibugyo Ebola therapeutic trials in DRC could collapse without an urgent $18m funding gap. Ghana Industrialisation: President Mahama broke ground on the Tema Integrated Industrial Park to accelerate manufacturing and exports under AfCFTA. South Africa Anti-Immigrant Protests: Nationwide marches demanded undocumented foreigners leave, with heightened security and disruption as repatriations continue.

Nairobi Export Push: Kenya’s capital is emerging as a hub for high-value professional services, with firms like Woodrow expanding across 13 countries and winning Africa Agency of the Year 2026. Sustainable Banking: Bank ABC says it mobilised $3bn in sustainable finance in 2025, with 71% directed to emerging markets, and boosted green/social/sustainable Sukuk underwriting. Private Credit & Funds: TLG Capital marks a second close of a new Africa-focused private credit fund, while South Africa’s Capitalworks launches its fourth flagship fund with IFC backing. Development Finance for Agriculture: Kenya’s FINAS 2026 summit spotlights a $100bn annual agriculture financing gap, highlighting AFC’s wholesale model to reach smallholders, youth and women. AfCFTA Acceleration: Nigeria’s trade minister urges faster AfCFTA implementation, including digital public infrastructure, interoperable payments and better access to finance for MSMEs. South Africa Policy & Markets: Court dismisses SALGA’s urgent bid to halt AARTO Phase 2, while a Competition Commission case on rand currency manipulation fails for some banks. Digital Payments & Fraud: Cybersecurity experts warn crypto scams are surging, and analysts flag “airtime advance” micro-lending as a potential debt trap outside credit rules. Energy & Infrastructure: Fitch warns climate risk is rising for African banks, and a new concessional loan targets Johannesburg’s electricity maintenance shortfalls. Regional Business Moves: Diageo appoints John Musunga as Africa MD from July 1, and Shell nears a ~$1bn sale of South African fuel stations to Adnoc’s unit. Migration Tensions: Anti-migrant protests and repatriations continue across South Africa as a June 30 deadline looms, with security forces on high alert.

Energy & Trade Disruption: Nigeria imported about 2m barrels of Libyan crude in May 2026—its first recorded import on record—highlighting how regional supply shifts are reshaping refinery feedstock. Private Sector Finance: ICD signed 13 landmark agreements to spur private-sector growth across member countries, including a Shariah-compliant SME financing line. Industrial Policy Watch: South Africa’s automotive masterplan is “failing dismally” on localisation, with local content stuck around the high-30% range versus a 60% target by 2035. Jobs & Restructuring: BAT says it may cut about 9,000 jobs in South Africa as it pushes an AI-driven productivity drive after ending local production. Development Finance & Integration: Afreximbank urged Africa to seize geopolitical upheaval as trade opportunities, stressing faster AfCFTA implementation. Healthcare Funding: Yemi Osinbajo and partners called for innovative financing models to reduce reliance on out-of-pocket spending. Power Costs Hitting Firms: Nigerian Exchange-listed companies spent N400.83bn on alternative power in Q1 2026, underscoring the business hit from unreliable electricity. Women & AfCFTA: UNDP and Nigeria warned AfCFTA women exclusion could risk $3.4tn of the single market, urging removal of financing and border barriers. Security & Migration: South Africa repatriated over 25,000 foreign nationals ahead of June 30 anti-immigration protests, as governments coordinate voluntary exits. AI in Africa: Chinese firms are gaining ground by promoting open-source AI models that lower costs and help local developers deploy systems.

Leadership Shake-Up: Deutsche Bank South Africa appoints economist Danelee Masia as chief country officer, signalling a governance-and-macroeconomics push as it deepens local corporate and investment banking. Cybersecurity for Digital Finance: Mastercard launches an Africa Cybersecurity Center of Excellence to boost cyber resilience across the continent’s payments and digital economy. Energy Access Investment: IFC backs CrossBoundary Access with a $10m equity injection to scale mini-grids and battery-as-a-service projects across sub-Saharan Africa. Fintech & FX Infrastructure: Nigeria-founded Stabyl raises $2.7m pre-seed to build shared-liquidity FX trading tech for banks and payment firms, aiming to cut settlement delays and fragmentation. Regional Trade & Payments: China appoints Standard Bank and ICBC to run a continent-wide yuan clearing arrangement for 19 countries, reducing reliance on the US dollar for China-Africa trade. Regulation & Consumer Protection: South Africa’s FSCA scrutiny of Astrix Data highlights how licence naming and fraud controls are under the microscope. Small Business Formalisation: Nigeria approves free CAC registration for 250,000 MSMEs to boost formalisation and financial inclusion. Public Finance & Policy: SARS opens 2026 auto-assessments from 1–12 July with WhatsApp delivery and pre-filled data, urging taxpayers to review carefully. Education & Skills: JA Africa and Prudence Foundation expand the Cha-Ching financial literacy curriculum to reach 275,000 primary pupils across five countries.

Banking & Capital Markets: Moody’s flags Absa’s proposed R4bn Kenya stake increase as credit positive, while noting higher East Africa risks. Venture Capital & Startups: E Squared says it deployed over R300m into South African start-ups in 2025, backing early-stage tech and financial inclusion. Payments & Fintech: Nigeria’s banks and fintechs face a CBN directive to host payment data locally from Jan 1, 2027, framed as data-sovereignty and jobs support; meanwhile ACAMB urges wider QR code adoption and better industry communication during payment downtime. Development Finance & Energy: World Bank’s Mission 300 electrification push is connecting tens of millions, with Tanzania, Nigeria and Ethiopia among the biggest beneficiaries; EBID signs $268m for Taraba’s power, irrigated rice and industrial park. Regional Trade & Integration: Egypt and Afreximbank deepen cooperation to back startups and cross-border payments. Policy & Governance: South Africa closes the Gauteng e-toll project and writes off outstanding debt, but the refund question for compliant motorists remains contentious. Aviation: United Nigeria Airlines is admitted as a full AFRAA member, strengthening Nigeria’s domestic and regional connectivity.

Markets: Nigeria’s NGX ended the week lower, with the All-Share Index down 1.65% and market value slipping to about N148.9tn, as Financial Services led turnover by volume. Banking & ESG: UBA mobilised staff across 20 African markets for “Jogging to Bond,” pairing wellness with coordinated environmental clean-ups, while Ghana is flagged as a regional ESG regulation leader after Bank of Ghana’s sustainable banking push. Payments & Fintech: SQRIL says its stablecoin-to-QR payments are expanding into Central Asia, pitching lower fees than card rails. Energy & Infrastructure: Envision Energy signed a 660MWh battery storage deal for South Africa’s Naos-1 hybrid renewables project, aimed at improving grid stability. SME finance: A new report argues digital lending has widened SME credit but a major Sub-Saharan Africa gap remains, with regulators tightening where costs and data use go too far. Policy & governance: East African press councils urged de-escalation between governments and media over intimidation and harassment. Social risk: South Africa’s MTN chair Mcebisi Jonas condemned xenophobia ahead of June 30 anti-immigration deadlines. Business climate: A World Bank note warns food security is shifting from production to affordability pressures, hitting Africa hardest.

Afreximbank Leadership: Afreximbank appoints Peter Adeshola Olowononi as Southern Africa Director of Regional Operations, effective May 1, replacing Humphrey Nwugo and overseeing 13 countries from Zimbabwe. Electricity Access Push: Mission 300’s co-financing has reached about $1.4bn, with EIB the biggest contributor ($347m), as the World Bank and AfDB press to connect 300m people by 2030. FX Pressure on Trade: Nigeria’s importers still face dollar access hurdles after CBN reforms, with Clea’s CEO pointing to persistent scarcity habits despite improved reserves. Rural Power Investment: IFC backs WeLight with a €27m raise to expand solar mini-grids, targeting nearly 10m people by 2030 across Nigeria and the DRC. Cyber Risk to Banking: ngCERT warns of ATM cash-out attacks after a UBA Senegal incident reportedly hit $2m via thousands of fraudulent withdrawals. Terror Financing Crackdown: US sanctions linked to an alleged ISIS finance network include Nigerian BDCs, with reporting highlighting a deserted Lagos residence tied to the case. Digital Finance Rules: Pakistan urges emerging economies to shape tokenised finance standards at the Point Zero Forum, warning that “money is software” and borders don’t hold. SME/Trade Facilitation: A Ghana investment pitch to the diaspora spotlights the Volta Region’s port and agribusiness pipeline, while Nigeria’s trade summit urges young exporters to use AfCFTA and digital value-add.

Afreximbank Leadership: Afreximbank has appointed Peter Adeshola Olowononi as Director of Regional Operations for Southern Africa, effective May 1, taking over from Humphrey Nwugo and overseeing 13 countries from its Zimbabwe office. SME Credit Push: NMB Bank and Mastercard launched the NMB SME World Business Credit Card in Tanzania, offering up to Sh50m credit with up to 53 interest-free days and added travel medical cover. Trade & Investment Link: Zenith Bank backed Nigeria’s 6th Canada-Africa Business Conference, positioning Lagos as a gateway for Canadian firms across finance, mining, tech and clean energy. Retail Banking Shake-up Watch: Standard Chartered is reportedly weighing options for its Ghana retail operations, including a possible sale or restructuring—raising questions for competition and customer access. Governance & Accountability: South Africa’s National Youth Development Agency faces a parliamentary grilling over a near R70m deficit and alleged irregular spending, highlighting financial mismanagement risks. Policy Meets Reality: South African manufacturers say localisation rules are undermined by procurement gaps and uneven enforcement, calling for tighter implementation. Digital Finance Ecosystem: NMB and UNCDF signed a cooperation deal to support tech-driven start-ups in Tanzania with regulatory support, market access, finance and mentorship. Market Volatility: El Niño is forming, with analysts warning food and commodity shocks could add a new layer of inflation risk for markets.

Regional Trade & Customs: South Africa’s President Cyril Ramaphosa used the 9th SACU summit to argue that no country can prosper alone as trade patterns shift, urging deeper regional coordination and investment to tackle supply-chain, food and energy volatility. SACU Reform Mandate: Leaders backed the appointment of Dumsani Masilela as SACU’s new Executive Secretary, tasking him with delivering the “re-imagined SACU Agenda” and extending the strategic plan to 2028/29, including work on industrialisation, investment promotion and trade facilitation. Anti-Corruption & Sports Finance: South Africa’s SIU won a tribunal repayment order of about R25m against SASCOC and former NLC officials over unlawfully diverted National Lotteries Commission grant funds, after findings of misrepresentation and unlawful enrichment. Banking Governance (Togo): SUNU Bank Togo appointed Yves Nanan as secretary-general to strengthen compliance and restructure operations, including branch and cash-point closures. Digital Finance & Inclusion (Cameroon): Wave met BEAC, ART and other regulators to push safer, more inclusive digital payments and expand adoption of digital financial services. Electricity Access (World Bank/AfDB): Mission 300 passed 50m connections since July 2023, with Sierra Leone receiving $60m to expand clean power via solar home systems and mini-grids. Payments & Fintech (Cross-border): dLocal was added to the Russell 2000 index, a boost for investor visibility as it expands cross-border financial infrastructure. Energy Investment (Ghana): MP A Plus says he’s pursuing what could be Africa’s biggest solar facility in Gomoa to cut power costs and attract manufacturers. Xenophobia & Governance (South Africa): MTN chairman Mcebisi Jonas condemned anti-foreigner sentiment, arguing the root cause is state failure and weak governance, not immigration.

Banking & Markets: South Africa sold R35.31m of inflation-linked bonds at auction, while Morgan Stanley says rate hikes may be near their end as inflation cools and credit conditions improve. Payments & Trade Finance: China’s central bank authorised Standard Bank and ICBC to clear renminbi across 19 African countries, boosting cross-border trade liquidity. SME & Startup Capital: Ghana’s government and DBG are crafting longer-term, innovation-friendly patient capital for startups; Uganda’s NCBA Bank partners MAT Abacus to offer free SME training and mentorship. Public Finance Recovery: Uganda begins tracing employers of student-loan defaulters to recover billions of shillings. Health & Risk: Africa CDC is seeking $1.4bn as Ebola cases in DR Congo and Uganda surpass 1,130. Energy & Infrastructure: Africa added 4.2GW new hydropower in 2025, but pumped storage remains a gap; Mission 300 electrification may miss its 300mn target. Energy & Industry Outlook: Nuclear SMRs are gaining traction as a future power option for industrialization. Cyber & Fraud: South Africans are warned about Facebook “lottery” scams draining bank accounts; South African CISOs flag third-party risk as a top concern.

Regional Trade & Infrastructure: Uganda’s Consul General says Kenya–Uganda SGR will boost cargo volumes through Mombasa by cutting transit time and freight costs, strengthening East African Community trade links. Payments Modernisation: BCEAO extended the deadline for connecting to UEMOA’s UEMOA Instant Payment Platform (PI-SPI) to Sept. 30 for banks and other institutions, with microfinance firms pushed to June 30, 2027. Banking & Capital Markets: African Bank says it expects to list in 2030 but must first return to profit; Standard Bank Malawi reported a 41% profit jump in 2025 as easing inflation supports recovery. Terror-Financing Crackdown: Nigeria’s CBN ordered banks and BDCs to freeze accounts and assets tied to six terrorism-financing suspects and four BDC operators, following US and Nigeria sanctions. Public Finance Stress: South Africa’s National Treasury issued Joburg a final notice to halt transfers under Section 216 amid liquidity and governance failures. Digital Finance for SMEs: Ghana’s Trident Digital Tech launched Sikaflow to formalise MSMEs and automate tax and records, aiming to reach over 2 million mostly informal businesses. Energy Transition Deals: Envision Energy signed a 660MWh BESS supply deal for South Africa’s Naos-1 hybrid project, while Nigeria faces renewed power supply risks as El Niño threatens hydropower. Health Financing: Nigeria estimates it needs about N500bn over five years to scale digital health beyond pilots.

Kenya’s Debt Market Boost: The CBK welcomed the Clearstream–Kenya Link, giving global institutional investors streamlined access to government securities via DhowCSD, aiming to deepen liquidity and broaden the investor base. Morocco Fintech Caution: Morocco’s central bank told Revolut its timing isn’t right for a near-term launch, citing priority regulatory and AML/FATF work. OCP Capital Markets Move: OCP Group completed a 5bn dirham perpetual subordinated bond issue, fully subscribed by domestic institutions, reinforcing its hybrid capital strategy. South Africa Macro Pressure: S&P cut South Africa’s growth outlook, warning inflation and energy costs could keep rates elevated. Mining Investment Gap: PwC says South Africa’s critical-minerals plans are “well-meaning” but execution lags, with capital shortfalls versus the wider energy sector. Nigeria Payments Innovation: Nigeria proposed a pan-African payment card to enable direct transactions between African currencies and cut dollar dependence. Terror Financing Crackdown: Nigeria’s CBN ordered banks to freeze accounts and assets tied to six individuals and four BDCs after US OFAC sanctions. Zimbabwe Infrastructure Finance: Zimbabwe is exploring mineral-backed loans with China for roads and rail, alongside a plan to tighten raw lithium exports from 2027. Intra-Africa Trade Up: Afreximbank reported intra-African trade rose 5.5% to $213.8bn in 2025. Banking Performance Watch: JAIZ Bank reported 24% profit growth in 2025 and shareholders approved an N150bn capital raise.

Development Finance: The OPEC Fund approved new projects worth over $2.4bn to back transport connectivity, healthcare, water security, climate resilience and social protection, alongside its $1.5bn E-STAR rapid financing push for 2026-2028. Digital Transformation: Ghana is accelerating digital reforms after a GSMA report flagged a 62% internet usage gap despite near-universal 4G, with calls for device financing, public-private partnerships and faster 5G rollout. Urban Power & Borrowing: Johannesburg’s electricity woes get a boost as the city secures a R3.8bn concessional loan to fix City Power, amid Auditor-General concerns over maintenance spending and weak financial discipline. Financial Integrity: South Africa’s FATF grey-list exit is being treated as a confidence test, not a finish line, with warnings that investigations and prosecutions still lag. Banking & Oversight Tech: Nigeria’s bank auditors are pushing for stronger AI governance in internal audit, arguing technology should strengthen audit teams and fraud controls. Trade & Industry: Tinubu urged Africa to end raw mineral exports and pursue value addition, while Afreximbank highlights trade growth momentum and the need to broaden export bases.

Reparations Push: Ghana’s Accra conference on slavery and reparatory justice is feeding a wider push for formal apologies, reparations mechanisms, and debt relief, with diaspora and policymakers mapping next steps. Global South Deals: SPIEF’s Global South push is still pulling big-ticket agreements, with total deal value likely topping $100bn despite fewer Western firms showing up. Financial Crime Watch: India’s ED flagged suspected forex violations at Rajesh Exports, including missing records tied to alleged African Mines investment and possible share-price manipulation. Public Finance Debate: Tanzania’s Finance Act, 2026 sparks a fight over whether emergency central-bank-style advances could become a back door for routine deficit financing. South Africa Local Governance: Auditor-General data shows 117 municipalities got unqualified audits with findings, while metros still fail clean audits—raising alarms about complacency and weak service delivery. West Africa Single Currency: ECOWAS central banks met in Monrovia to finalize the ERM framework, a key step toward the Eco single currency. Counter-Terror Finance: Nigeria welcomed US OFAC sanctions on an alleged ISWAP financier and linked BDC firms, signaling tighter scrutiny of financial networks. Women in Finance: South Africa’s chartered accountancy pipeline is threatened by funding and mentorship gaps, with Black women still underrepresented. Nigeria Youth Skills: Tinubu told Mastercard the country’s tech-savvy youth can integrate globally, backed by a plan to train 5m businesses in digital skills. Climate Finance: Namibia’s DBN secured a $1m GCF grant to unlock up to $250m in future climate funding, strengthening access to green finance. Vehicle Market Shift: Absa Finance data points to younger buyers increasingly choosing new cars over used, reshaping South Africa’s auto finance demand.