AGP Executive Report

Banking & Credit: S&P Global assigns Afreximbank a BBB+ long-term issuer rating and A-2 short-term rating, citing stable outlook, strong shareholder support and its countercyclical role as African trade and AfCFTA implementation accelerate. Digital Infrastructure: Ghana-based eLearning Africa roundtable urges African governments to earmark 1–2% of annual GDP for continental digital infrastructure to unlock AI and reduce dependence on external actors. Payments & Cashless Push: South Africa’s Reserve Bank governor points to India’s UPI as a model for cutting cash use, highlighting low-cost, phone/QR-based payments as Pretoria moves toward a free real-time national payments system. Trade Finance: EBRD provides a $20m trade finance line to Bank of Africa-Benin to expand import-export support, guarantees and access for local firms to regional and global markets. Regional Health Security: EAC and Germany’s KfW sign a €5m partnership to strengthen Ebola and other infectious-disease preparedness, lab capacity and outbreak response across member states. Agriculture Investment Gap: Nairobi hosts the FINAS 2026 summit spotlighting Africa’s $100bn+ annual agricultural financing shortfall and pushing new capital flows into food systems. South Africa Xenophobia Fallout: Nigeria begins repatriating citizens from South Africa after anti-migrant protests, with disputes over documentation delays and immigration system failures.

Digital Payments Push: South Africa’s Reserve Bank Governor Lesetja Kganyago points to India’s UPI as a model for a free, real-time national payments system to cut cash use. Banking Fraud Risk: A Belgian court ruling in Antwerp could reshape how banks handle fraud claims after an elderly couple was tricked into transferring money; South Africa’s banking fraud disputes already skew heavily toward banks. Mobile Connectivity Investment: Liquid expands Zimbabwe’s connectivity with 26,000 km of fibre and 261 LTE base stations, aiming to deepen digital inclusion across underserved areas. Security & State Capacity: Nigeria’s Tinubu warns armed groups to surrender or face full force, announcing major police and defence/security budget allocations amid rising kidnappings. Youth & Jobs Pressure: Stats SA data shows 60.9% unemployment among South Africans aged 15–24 and 37.6% NEET—fueling calls for economic freedom beyond political gains. Regional Health Funding: The EAC signs a €5m KfW deal to strengthen Mpox response and regional health security, including lab capacity and coordinated outbreak systems. Global Growth Headwinds: The World Bank cuts 2026 global growth to 2.5%, citing the Iran conflict’s energy and shipping shock and warning of tighter financial conditions. Kenya Cooperative Finance: President Ruto launches Shirikiana Sacco in Western Kenya, with a Ksh50m commitment to expand savings, credit and financial inclusion. Illicit Trade Crackdown: South Africa’s SARS seizes R245m in illicit goods, targeting smuggling, counterfeits and tax evasion.

MTN Growth & Fintech Push: MTN says it will connect 20m homes by 2030 and grow fintech revenues (nearly R30bn already), with plans to “sweat” its Nigerian banking licence to expand services beyond payments. Land Bank Blended Finance: South Africa’s Land Bank tells parliament blended finance is vital for cheaper, concessional farmer funding, arguing funding terms—not “bailouts”—determine what borrowers pay. Durban Port Upgrade: The World Bank and S&P rank Durban as the world’s most improved port, citing big gains in turnaround times and berth utilisation in 2025. Mining Policy Certainty Debate: Mining officials reject claims of “policy uncertainty,” saying the real issues are administrative shortcomings and warning that rhetoric can itself create uncertainty. BNPL Regulation Call: South Africa’s buy-now-pay-later firms push for formal rules as the SARB warns BNPL could worsen over-indebtedness. Payments Modernisation: Nigeria’s CBN outlines Payments System Vision 2028, including moving eNaira from pilot to a core payment rail, potentially for salaries and other public disbursements. Regional Housing Finance: West Africa’s mortgage refinancing body CRRH-UEMOA rebrands as AFINHAB to expand housing finance across UEMOA. World Bank Macro Watch: The World Bank warns developing economies, including Kenya, face tougher years and widening income gaps, while also flagging up to $100bn support for crisis-hit countries amid Middle East shocks.

Egypt’s Growth Play: Egypt is pitching a new reform push to turn itself into a manufacturing, renewables and fintech hub, targeting private-sector-led investment (aiming for 65% of total investment) and $60bn annual FDI, with priority sectors including textiles, autos, food processing, electronics and pharma. Nigeria Oil & Markets: Nigeria’s crude output rose to about 1.53m bpd in May, while Nigerian equities slipped as investors booked gains ahead of holidays. Dangote Refinery IPO Momentum: Standard Bank says it will back Dangote’s refinery IPO as the mega-plant drives investor interest across African exchanges. Ghana Corporate Results: Unilever Ghana reported 62% profit growth in 2025, lifting cash reserves and proposing a dividend. Africa Trade & Finance: AfCFTA success hinges on cooperation, trade facilitation and border efficiency, not just tariff cuts. Ebola Response: Africa CDC flagged contact-tracing gaps as cases rise, while the EU added funding for genomics, testing and wastewater surveillance. SME Finance in Zambia: Bank of Zambia pledged K5bn to expand affordable MSME lending via guarantees and support. South Africa Mobility & Skills: WesBank is reshaping offerings for EV charging and new mobility, while Engen graduated 21 artisans to tackle youth unemployment and skills shortages.

Pan-African Finance: Africa’s trade bloc AfCFTA is targeting $250bn in intra-African trade in 2026, with Wamkele Mene urging faster implementation and deeper regional value chains, spotlighting Lagos’s industrial and digital push. Regional Trade Tensions: Nigeria’s imports from South Africa rose 23.83% to N155.26bn in Q1 2026 despite xenophobic strain, underscoring how economic links are holding even as diplomacy worsens. Banking & Markets: Standard Bank says it will lead the planned Dangote Refinery IPO after the plant surpassed capacity in test runs, while KCB reported Sh48.8bn in green financing loans and screened Sh587.9bn for sustainability due diligence. Macro Headwinds: The World Bank cut global growth forecasts to 2.5% for 2026, citing Middle East conflict, higher oil and fertilizer costs, and inflation risks that also threaten African economies like Ghana. Debt & Development Finance: Zimbabwe is in talks with the AfDB for a $150m loan to clear debt arrears and unlock development funding. Policy & Compliance: South Africa’s crypto exchange-control status is thrown into confusion after conflicting court rulings, with regulators now facing a Supreme Court decision.

Renewables Finance: Standard Bank says finance raised for Africa’s renewable energy projects outpaced non-renewables by 8:1 in 2025, as solar, wind and hybrids with battery storage pull in more capital for jobs and energy access. Ebola Watch: The DRC-Uganda Ebola outbreak has topped 600 cases, while Africa CDC warns contact-tracing and funding gaps could let it worsen. Global Growth Shock: The World Bank cut 2026 growth to 2.5%, warning of “fuel and financing stress” and a possible slide to 1.3% if Middle East fallout hits energy and markets harder. East Africa Budgets: Kenya flagged risks to fiscal consolidation amid Iran-linked shocks; Uganda expects double-digit growth as oil production begins. Digital Payments Push: Ghana’s central bank licensed enza for enhanced digital payment services, while Nigeria’s HabariPay released its 2025 impact report on expanding payment infrastructure. Fintech Credit Stress: Lipa Later’s administration spotlights how BNPL lenders struggle when venture funding dries up. Capital Markets: Standard Bank backs Dangote Refinery’s IPO plans; Ghana’s BoG governor says GHIB aims to be a bridge between African and global capital markets. Trade & Integration: AfCFTA success hinges on cooperation, trade facilitation and digital trade protocols to cut cross-border costs.

Ebola Watch: The US urged Europe to tighten travel curbs from Ebola-hit regions in Central Africa, warning that weak measures could trigger broader US restrictions as DRC and Uganda response efforts continue. South Africa Macro & Rates: The Reserve Bank said the financial system is more vulnerable amid the US-Iran conflict, with weaker growth, higher inflation and tighter conditions stressing households and firms, while non-resident capital flows add to risk. Banking & Markets: Standard Bank will back Dangote’s $50bn refinery IPO, positioning the deal as a major test of African capital-market liquidity. Telecoms & Connectivity: MTN plans to cut R4bn–R6bn in South Africa costs by 2029 and aims to expand home connectivity across Africa toward 30% share, targeting 20m homes. Jobs Pressure: A new look at South Africa’s tax data shows formal job creation has slowed, leaving unemployment entrenched—especially for youth. Governance & Compliance: South Africa faces a tougher FATF review as allegations at the Madlanga inquiry raise concerns about organised crime links and asset recovery capacity. Digital Finance: UBA won a Banker Technology Award for AI-powered cross-border payments via its Leo chatbot integrated with PAPSS. Housing Finance: Shelter Afrique Development Bank unveiled a new brand identity as it pushes deeper housing and urban development financing across Africa. EU Trade: The EU and Eastern & Southern Africa states concluded an enhanced Economic Partnership Agreement, aiming to boost services, investment and digitalisation.

Sovereign Risk Watch: South Africa’s Reserve Bank says the oil price shock could keep inflation pressure high, pushing for tighter monetary policy, even as Fitch’s recent upgrade boosts sentiment. Climate Finance: Kenya secured about $700,000 in technical assistance from the Santiago Network on Loss and Damage to quantify climate-related losses over the past decade. Regional Trade & Transport: Uganda’s Museveni urged EAC to rationalize transport—rail for heavy goods and petroleum, roads for passengers and light cargo—to cut costs. Investor Outreach: Kenya courted Slovak investors at a Nairobi forum, pitching stable macro conditions and open capital markets. Digital Assets: Nigeria’s Roqqu is partnering with Ondo Finance to launch tokenised US stocks and ETFs for retail investors by late June. Illicit Finance: Zambia lost an estimated $3.5bn to illicit financial flows over five years, highlighting risks to fiscal stability and public services. Banking & Inclusion: Sidian Bank pledged Sh1.5m to fund a new paediatric unit at Kenya’s Tenwek Hospital through a charity golf tournament. Agro-Industry: AfDB committed $86m to Nigeria’s agro-processing zones programme, with disbursement still ramping up. AI & Finance: South Africa’s Reserve Bank flagged advanced AI models as an immediate short-term risk to the financial system. Housing & Urban Development: Shelter Afrique Development Bank rebranded as it marks its 45th anniversary, aiming to accelerate housing and urban development across Africa.

World Cup Trade Boost in the UAE: Hotels and hospitality venues across the UAE are betting on a World Cup-driven lift in demand, using fan zones and promotions to offset months of regional instability and revive profits. Ebola Response Under Strain: WHO and Africa CDC warn of a widening Ebola funding gap as deaths rise in the DRC and Uganda, with response efforts threatened by insecurity and hard-to-reach areas. Kenya Protest Flashpoint: Kenya’s protests over a US-funded Ebola quarantine facility have turned into a sovereignty and transparency dispute, with court orders pushing for disclosure of the agreement. Sovereign Credit Relief: Fitch has revised its criteria for pausing debt repayments, aiming to reduce the risk of countries being treated as in default when they seek temporary liquidity support. South Africa Growth Momentum: South Africa’s economy extended growth for a sixth consecutive quarter, with finance, agriculture, trade and transport driving output. Ghana Capital Market Signal: Ghana’s Stock Exchange regained international recognition after strong 2025 performance, with renewed listings and investor confidence. Banking Expansion in East Africa: United Capital secured investment banking licences in Ethiopia and Rwanda, marking a major step in regional expansion. Nigeria Investor Push: Nigeria’s Invest in Lagos 3.0 summit is drawing federal and state pitches to woo investors, with promises of improved tax and business conditions. Morocco-China Trade Lift: Morocco’s CAETE session expects momentum from China’s zero-tariff policy, supporting deeper Sino-Moroccan trade and industrial cooperation. Kenya Monetary Policy Pause: Kenya’s central bank held its rate at 8.75% after a run of easing, citing global uncertainty and cost pressures.

Sovereign Debt Meets Power Investment: Zambia unveiled a $600m AfDB-backed bond buyback tied to a $275m, 15-year grid resilience programme to modernise electricity distribution—an approach investors will watch for replication across Africa. Energy Transition Push: South Africa launched Eskom Green and plans an initial 2GW renewables pipeline with private partners, alongside smaller in-house projects, as it targets cleaner power by 2040. Macroeconomic Reality Check: South Africa’s GDP grew 0.5% in Q1, but household spending rose just 0.1% as consumers stay squeezed by essentials. Capital Markets: Growthpoint Properties raised R1.8bn via a senior unsecured bond after bids topped R6.5bn, while South Africa’s bond and credit story also got a boost from Fitch’s upgrade coverage. Digital Finance & Payments: SARB deputy governor Rashad Cassim urged faster, cheaper retail digital payments and outlined work on PayShap and CBDC considerations. Financial Inclusion Tech: dLocal expanded BNPL Fuse with eligibility screening and refund orchestration to improve merchant conversion across Africa and other emerging regions. Public Finance & Infrastructure: Nigeria’s NSIA chief called for deeper domestic capital mobilisation for infrastructure, anchored by a proposed $1bn fund. Governance & Risk: South Africa’s NHI Act faces major legal challenges, with the Constitutional Court set to weigh whether Parliament properly engaged the public. Regional Trade & Investment: Lagos hosted Invest Lagos 3.0, with officials pitching the city as Africa’s gateway for global investors and rail/airport upgrades, including a $500m MMIA modernisation approval.

BNPL Credit Shock in South Africa: TransUnion warns that if buy-now-pay-later is added to formal credit reporting, 15%-25% of credit-active consumers could see credit score movements, even when repayments are on time—raising fresh questions for regulators and lenders. South Africa’s Industrial Turnaround Plan: Cabinet-approved industrial strategy admits de-industrialisation is being driven by energy, logistics and telecom bottlenecks, aiming for 3% annual GDP growth if infrastructure and productive-sector investment improve. Business Rescue Signals Stress: South Africa’s business rescue filings are rising, with TMA-SA citing tougher conditions and warning rescues can take about 18 months, often too late for struggling firms. Telecom Boom, Hidden Costs for Contractors: A report argues South Africa’s 5G and fibre buildout is quietly squeezing black-owned contractors through procurement and payment pressure. Kenya–Belgium Deal Push: Ruto urges Belgian investors to process minerals in Kenya on clean power, pitching renewable energy, agribusiness and manufacturing partnerships. Ghana Rice Import Rules: Ghana will link rice import permits to proof of local investment in production, while a $3.5bn AgriConnect compact targets 2.6m jobs. Nigeria–South Africa Tensions: Nigeria signals possible retaliatory measures over attacks on Nigerians in South Africa, while repatriation is still being managed. Nigeria Security Meets Banking: Nigeria’s army chief urges banks to disrupt terrorism financing via stronger surveillance and intelligence-sharing. U.S. Critical Minerals Move: The U.S. launches a $12bn critical minerals stockpile push, courting Namibia’s uranium sector as China dominates supply chains. CEMAC Monetary Policy Update: BEAC suspends new refinancing under a productive-investment facility, pausing “Window B” operations to modernise the framework.

Sovereign Credit Boost, FX Volatility: Fitch upgraded South Africa’s sovereign rating to BB from BB-, lifting the rand briefly to around R16.22/$ before Middle East tensions pushed risk aversion and pressured the currency again. JSE Ownership Scrutiny: A new Black Ownership on the JSE report says Standard Bank and Nedbank still have under 1% black ownership and have not completed BEE deals for a decade, pointing to policy design failures. Nigeria Fintech Credit Upgrade: Payaza Africa secured multiple “A” ratings, including upgrades by DataPro, Intelligence Africa, Agusto and GCR, strengthening its position in Nigeria’s payments and lending ecosystem. Payments Infrastructure Debate: EMBank’s Ekmel Çilingir argues global finance power will hinge more on who controls payment rails than on dollar dominance. SME Funding Push (South Africa): FNB Business Banking’s Vumela fund invested R20m in Breaze Delivery to scale its logistics tech and expand driver networks. Ethiopia Capital Markets Opener: Nigeria’s United Capital became the first foreign firm to win an Ethiopia investment banking licence, committing $1.5m to operate from Addis Ababa. Public Finance & Inclusion: SASSA set July 2026 grant payment dates for older persons, disability and children’s grants, supporting about 27m beneficiaries.

Ebola Response Funding: WHO unveiled a US$518m Ebola preparedness and response plan for DRC (June–November 2026), stressing political commitment, sustained financing and community mobilisation. Kenya Oil Discipline: Kenya’s Turkana South Lokichar project moves forward after approval of a revised development plan and new investor backing, but analysts warn the real test is turning oil into long-term prosperity through discipline and transparency. Climate Risk & Insurance: South Africa’s Western and Eastern Cape floods exposed low insurance coverage among commercial farmers—only about a third are insured—raising pressure for better climate-risk protection. Fintech Deal Strategy: Altron says it’s prioritising capability over scale as South Africa’s fintech market consolidates, highlighting a shift from deal volume to product and platform strength. Banking Integration Momentum: Old Mutual’s OM Bank hit 473,000 customers as integration progresses, with retail deposits and savings migration driving growth. Corporate Debt Appetite: Growthpoint raised R1.8bn in a heavily oversubscribed bond auction, signalling strong investor demand for listed property credit. Payments & Digital Finance: UBA won the African category at the Banker Technology Awards for AI-enabled cross-border transfers using PAPSS, while Ghana’s GhIPSS pushes ISO 20022 migration to improve interoperability. Migration Rule of Law: South Africa’s Ramaphosa warned against vigilantism in immigration enforcement, reiterating only authorised state agencies can act. Climate Infrastructure Finance: ARM-Harith secured a $76m first close for Africa’s first integrated multi-currency climate transition fund, targeting de-risking local pension participation. Green Economy Execution: Atlantis SEZ in the Western Cape says it has attracted over R3bn in investment and created 800+ jobs, aiming to localise green manufacturing and renewable energy value chains.

Banking & Digital Inclusion: Absa’s new Personal & Private Banking CEO Sitoyo Lopokoiyit says the bank will intensify mobile and digital banking, aiming to integrate payments, lending, savings and value-added services after a charity auction raised R3m at Sun City. Investor Push: Kenya’s President William Ruto heads to Belgium, Norway and Finland to deepen trade ties and attract investment under the EU Economic Partnership Agreement. Payments Innovation: HashKey MENA pilots a stablecoin-based B2B payment corridor to Africa with Aptos and Daya, targeting faster, cheaper cross-border settlements and FX friction. Youth Credit Shift: In Kenya, Sacco-led lending is expanding as youth struggle to access traditional bank credit, with lower collateral and rates than many MFIs. Sovereign Credit Signal: Fitch upgraded South Africa’s credit rating for the first time in 21 years, boosting investor confidence. Maritime Finance & Security: Nigeria plans to use the EU’s €59m West Africa Sustainable Ocean Programme to fight illegal fishing and strengthen Gulf of Guinea surveillance and enforcement. Ebola Funding: IRENA and Etihad Credit Insurance back renewable energy risk-mitigation financing via the ETAF platform, while WHO rolls out a $518m plan to curb Africa’s Ebola outbreak. South Africa Xenophobia Fallout: Ghana receives evacuees after security screening, and Ghana says it will pursue compensation for destroyed businesses and assets.

France-Africa Investment Push: President Emmanuel Macron unveiled a €23bn plan for Africa covering energy, agriculture, digital, industry and maritime, aiming to shift ties from aid to investment and create up to 250,000 jobs. Banking Credit Gap: Nigeria’s banks raised about ₦4.65tn in recapitalisation, but AfDB warns private-sector credit is only 9.4% of GDP, leaving SMEs starved of affordable long-term funding. Payments Resilience: Nigeria’s NIBSS glitches are framed as a test of the country’s ability to fix issues in a now-sophisticated real-time settlement ecosystem. Capital Markets Governance: NGX says Nigeria’s capital market must move from wealth creation to inclusive prosperity backed by strong governance. South Africa Investor Mood: A week of improving sentiment brought bond inflows and a firmer rand, but a warning that capital can move fast when confidence shifts. Ebola & Health Financing: WHO launched a $518m plan to curb Ebola, while Zimbabwe links a sugar tax to new cancer radiotherapy equipment. Climate Finance Pressure: Africa’s negotiators urged a shift from climate promises to delivery as Bonn talks begin. Trade & Connectivity: Egypt set up Canal Trust Ship Services to connect Red Sea ports with East Africa, boosting intra-African logistics. Afreximbank Caribbean Bet: Afreximbank roadshowed in Jamaica with a US$5bn financing push to deepen Africa–Caribbean trade and industrialisation.

Payments & Trade Infrastructure: Afreximbank is pushing AfPAY adoption via commercialisation roadshows, aiming to cut cross-border settlement costs and speed up trade flows; it says AfPAY has linked 400+ banks and handled $32bn in 2024 settlements. Banking & Investor Sentiment: Absa faces shareholder backlash after shareholders voted against its remuneration report tied to a new CEO exit package worth about $9m. Competition & Digital Lending: Nigeria’s FCCPC, directed by President Tinubu, moves to dismantle Optasia’s alleged 12-year monopoly in airtime credit and data advances, a sector estimated at N3tn annually. Capital Markets: Canal+ has listed on the JSE after buying and delisting MultiChoice, giving South African investors rand access to the group’s Africa growth story. Retail & Financial Services: South Africa’s TFG flags store closures after profit falls despite revenue growth, while it continues its push into financial services. Energy & Industry: Tanzania courts investors at Invest Lagos and SPIEF-style forums with the Bagamoyo SEZ pitch, betting on manufacturing and logistics to attract capital. Crime & Enforcement: SARS seized about 90 bricks of suspected cocaine hidden in excavators at Durban Port, handing the case to SAPS for investigation. Housing Finance (Diaspora): Tanzania’s TCB and CPS Africa sign to expand mortgage access for diaspora buyers into Fumba Town.